Currently pivoting 4100 as it trades within a 4022-4202 range.
While upside is capped below 4138, attempts build up momentum will struggle, making it dependent on 4054 holding to keep those hopes alive.
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7 day pivot around 7500 likely to be broken = bullish
Now needs to firmly trade above 7552 to confirm, which would expose 7583 as the last obstacle to the record 7624 high
12-day pattern around 1.42 so far broken (bearish if 1.42 doesn’t trade today)
1.4149 range low over this 12-day period broken as well (stops run) but with limited follow through after a pause above 1.4134 support (low 1.4136) and 1.4124 below it. This is why I say AT levels matter.
USDJPY fell back below 162 after Finance Minister Katayama said pension funds should be encouraged to invest more in the domestic market.
So far key support at 161.25 has held (low 161.28) to contain the fallout but only back above 162.00 and 162.07 would negate the shift in risk.
Market stays in a sell on blips mode while trade is below 162.
It is said that the forex market (and its algos) live to run stops. This can be seen by this chart where stops were run above 1.1449 followed by a pause just below 1.1462 and a quick retreat. Key resistance (also a 50% retracement).is at 1.1473
Momentum otherwise is tilted up but with little to go for on the upside (i.e. no key stops to run) unless the high of the day (1.1461) is taken out.
If you are looking for momentum to build, 61215 needs to hold followed by a break above 65525.
Otherwise, it stays stuck in a range within 60/61K – 64/65K
US500 has seen 7500 print for the 7th day in a row. To break the pattern and put bulls back in control, 7500 needs to become support.
Note, the longer a pattern like this goes on the greater the risk of a directional move in the direction of the breakout.
NAS100 an outperformer with rebound off the low needing to regain 29852 and then 3K+ to negate the downside risk and put the bull camp back in control.
(AT 4 hour CCFD chart)
…
Comes into the day where 1.4200 has traded 12 days in a row.
While a break of this pattern (meaning 1.42 doesn’t trade) would send a bearish signal, it would only be confirmed if the 1.4149 bottom of the range is firmly broken.
As you will see in an upcoming blog article the “50” level (e.g. 1.1450) can be a powerful sentiment indicator, especially for short-term trading.
This is why the pause at 1.1449 caught my eye as it was not only around a chart resistance, but it was 1 pip shy of 1.1450.
Pause above 4000 has cooled the downside but to break/reverse current momentum 4134 needs to be firmly broken.
AT (Amazing Trader) daily chart shows momentum building to the upside following breaks of 1.3398 (200 day mva) and this week’s 1.3401 high, so far with limited follow through.
For momentum to build further, 1.3461 would need to be taken out.
AT (Amazing Trader 4 hour chart shows bounce from a new low at 28676 would need to regain 29200+ to neutralize the last leg down or risk stays on the downside..
Otherwise, focus stays on 29K as a pivotal level as NAS100 facess headwinds from tech and geopolitics.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows blue lines dominating, indicating momentum on the downside.
However, so far unable to shake a focus from 1.14, which has limited the move (low 1.3193).
AT (Amazing Trader) 4-hour chart shows risk on the downside (2 blue lines) that have so far seen a 7426 target hit (low 7420)
Price action suggests risk the 6 day pivot around 7500 would be broken tomorrow (unless it trades), a bearish signal but only a break of 7420 would build further momentum.,
AT (Amazing Trader) daily chart shows 1,42 trading for the 12th day in a row.
Range over this period have been 1.4149-1.4247.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows rising red support lines = upward momentum.
Supports at 162.07 and 161.66 keep risk pointed up, stronger if the former holds as support.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows XAUUSD back on the defensive with 4027 the last line of defense ahead of 4000 and key 3956 and 3942. While bull sentiment is shaken by the failure at 4200 and subsequent retreat, damage is not fatal unless the 3942 low is broken.
Back above 4057 would cool the risk but only back above 4134 would fully negate current momentum.
EURUSD US500 XTIUSD
Risk off takes over with oil and US bond yields spiking higher, US bond yields USD firming while stocks and GOLD tumble. The catalyst was President Trump saying the Iran ceasefire is over “I think.”
Keep an eye on the 200 day mva (1.3398), close to the intra-day high at 1.,3401
See chart for levels
US30 momentum: Strong up as it continues to benefit both from rotation (e.g. when tech stocks wobble) and when equities rally in general. (usually with a lag).
When in uncharted record high territory the only resistance is the new record high (53244).
Itching for a breakout.
Current pattern: 1.42 has traded in each of the past 11 days (including today). The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move in the direction of the breakout once the pattern ends.
Pause above the former mini breakout level at 60900 (low 61240) should be encouraging to the bull side but requires a trendline break and solid move above 65K for momentum to build to the upside.
Otherwise, 60-61K/64-65K range.