Break of the 28676 low has seen a pause just above 28200, the level (along with 28K) that bulls do not want to see trade.
(AT daily chart)
Daily Tips
The level bulls do not want to see broken following the break of 7500 is 7420 so some hope with the low pausing above it at 7431.
However, as the chart shows, back above 7500 would be needed to negate the riisk
Coming off 18-year high where 3 blue AT lines indicate a bearish pattern that would need to break 217.31 to break momentum and confirm a high is in for now..
Note, with USDJPY trading a tight range, most of the moves in this cross are coming from moves in GBPUSD.
One week ago it was highlighted here a directional shift in risk to the downside after a 12-day pivot around 1.42 was broken.
In this regard, the 1.3950 target remains intact but 1.40, more psychological than technical) remains an obstacle to exposing it.
Retreat from just below a one year high (.8152 vs., .8169 ) would need to break .8009 (use .8000 as well ) to negate current momentum and shift it the other way.
Otherwise, move down will likely be treated as a retracement.
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Daily chart: Downtrend but consolidating while above the 3942 low.
Other charts: So far unable to shake a focus from 4000 after a bunce from a pause above 3861 (low at 3969) , the last obstacle to 3942.
Stalemate: 2 week range: 1.6127 – 162.84
Trades bid while above 162 but BoJ intervention threat restraining a stronger push up.
So far unable to sustain momentum off higher lows (red AT lines) after extending high to 1.1482.
For momentum to build, EURUSD would need to get through 1.1508 = 61.8% of 1.1622 => 1.1324
Failure to hold 1.35+ has seen a move below the 1.3461 breakout level
Catalyst: EURGBP bounce back above .8500 has been a weight on GBPUSD while EURUSD lags and trades a tight range. See upcoming article on using crosses to trade spot currencies.
IS BTCUSD bid or bid in an offered market?
Answer: Jury is out unless 65525 is firmly broken (came close) on the upside or 60/61K is broken on the downside
If you followed our USDCAD posts you will learn a good lesson on how directional signals can come from a break of a pattern trading around a key round number.
In this case it was a break of a 12-day pivoit around 1.,42.
Trying to correct but upside stays at risk while 7528 holds as support.
If not, then fallback is 7500, which keeps a bid as long as it holds.
Momentum trying to build to the downside (2 blue AT lines followed by a break of 29091, brief so far) and dependent on 29K (more psychological than technical) holding to [prevent exposing the key 28678 low.
Back above 29091, would cool but then 29592 needed to negate the risk
Consolidating between 83.45 and 86.58 on this 4 hour CFD chart
For the current rebound to build further momentum, 88.00+ would be needed (87.68 on this chart)
Expect choppy trade to continue while within 4000-4100 with key levels outside of it at 3983-4103.
This leaves 4060 as a neutral bias (sentiment) setting level (currently trading below it in a tight range).
It is said that one picture says a thousand words. In this case it is these two charts indicating the impact of EURGBP on GBPUSD over the past two days (i.e. market having more trouble absorbing the GBPUSD side of the cross flow).
Note how GBPUSD (lower high) and EURGBP (higher low) are mirroring each other.
A lower GBPUSD high (2 blue AT lines) indicates time for a pause where 1.35 needs to hold to keep a strong bid with fallback support as long as it trades above yesterday’s 1.3461 breakout level.
Keep an eye on EURGBP, which has bounced today, and taken some pressure off the GBPUSD upside, suggesting whatever sell order was behind the GBPUSD surge yesterday has been filled.
Testing daily trendline
Testing .7000, a pivotal level, which if broken opens the door to .7068, the AT target and level that needs to be broken to put the nail in the coffin of the downtrend.
NAS100 tested stubborn 29853 resistance again, holding so far and remains the obstacle to 30K‘
Needs to hold 29538 holding (on this CFD chart) to keep risk pointed at the high.
Post-PPI spike tested, held 7582 resistance.
Now dependent on 7539 holding (on this CFD chart) to keep momentum pointed up at the high.
Major downtrend
4th weekly drop triggered by the break of .8596 has EURGBP aiming for pivotal .8500 (needs to hold to check the downside) with a void of support until .8355.
Expect choppy trade while within 4000-4100 with key levels outside of it at 3983-4103 as that is where stops likely lying.
Within 4000-4100, the 4050 level is likely to be pivotal in setting its trading tone (currently below it).
Performing like a textbook according to my logic:
Break of 12-day pivot (last Friday) sent a bearish directional signal
While technically in a daily uptrend, it would need to take out 1.3461 to confirm. High over this period has been 1.3452 with a lower high yesterday at 1.3442.
For the lower high to be anything but a pause, 1.3322 would need to be broken.
Nothing to get excited about.
EURUSD downtrend in a nearly 2-week consolidation between 1.1361-1.1462 (top end tested again yesterday) with the broader range at 1.1324-1.1473 (where there would be key stops), rewarding range traders at the expense of those hoping for breakouts.
Trying to build up momentum where a break of 65543 is still needed to fully negate a downside risk and shift the risk to 67+
Otherwise, range is still 61-65K
NAS100 getting a lift from cool US core CPI but still needs to take out a stubborn 29853 resistance to build momentum for a run back to 30K+.
Otherwise, more chop expected and dependent on 29K+ trading to keep a bid.