As you will see in an upcoming blog article the “50” level (e.g. 1.1450) can be a powerful sentiment indicator, especially for short-term trading.
This is why the pause at 1.1449 caught my eye as it was not only around a chart resistance, but it was 1 pip shy of 1.1450.
Pause above 4000 has cooled the downside but to break/reverse current momentum 4134 needs to be firmly broken.
AT (Amazing Trader) daily chart shows momentum building to the upside following breaks of 1.3398 (200 day mva) and this week’s 1.3401 high, so far with limited follow through.
For momentum to build further, 1.3461 would need to be taken out.
AT (Amazing Trader 4 hour chart shows bounce from a new low at 28676 would need to regain 29200+ to neutralize the last leg down or risk stays on the downside..
Otherwise, focus stays on 29K as a pivotal level as NAS100 facess headwinds from tech and geopolitics.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows blue lines dominating, indicating momentum on the downside.
However, so far unable to shake a focus from 1.14, which has limited the move (low 1.3193).
AT (Amazing Trader) 4-hour chart shows risk on the downside (2 blue lines) that have so far seen a 7426 target hit (low 7420)
Price action suggests risk the 6 day pivot around 7500 would be broken tomorrow (unless it trades), a bearish signal but only a break of 7420 would build further momentum.,
AT (Amazing Trader) daily chart shows 1,42 trading for the 12th day in a row.
Range over this period have been 1.4149-1.4247.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows rising red support lines = upward momentum.
Supports at 162.07 and 161.66 keep risk pointed up, stronger if the former holds as support.
AT (Amazing Trader) 4 hour chart shows XAUUSD back on the defensive with 4027 the last line of defense ahead of 4000 and key 3956 and 3942. While bull sentiment is shaken by the failure at 4200 and subsequent retreat, damage is not fatal unless the 3942 low is broken.
Back above 4057 would cool the risk but only back above 4134 would fully negate current momentum.
EURUSD US500 XTIUSD
Risk off takes over with oil and US bond yields spiking higher, US bond yields USD firming while stocks and GOLD tumble. The catalyst was President Trump saying the Iran ceasefire is over “I think.”
Keep an eye on the 200 day mva (1.3398), close to the intra-day high at 1.,3401
See chart for levels
US30 momentum: Strong up as it continues to benefit both from rotation (e.g. when tech stocks wobble) and when equities rally in general. (usually with a lag).
When in uncharted record high territory the only resistance is the new record high (53244).
Itching for a breakout.
Current pattern: 1.42 has traded in each of the past 11 days (including today). The longer this pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move in the direction of the breakout once the pattern ends.
Pause above the former mini breakout level at 60900 (low 61240) should be encouraging to the bull side but requires a trendline break and solid move above 65K for momentum to build to the upside.
Otherwise, 60-61K/64-65K range.
Momentum up since the low at 1.3140 with the current pattern 8 green candles in a row.
1.3385 is the current obstacle while 1.3461 is key resistance.
While the bounce from just below 29K is encouraging, a solid move above 30K is needed to put the bulls back into control.’
Otherwise, it is still consolidation while trade is between 29-30K.
USDJPY is trading back above 162 with its 40 year high at 162.84 looming above.
This has raised the risk of BoJ intervention, where its tactics have changed from verbal warnings => then actual intervention to no warning => ambush with covert intervention to keep traders off guard and guessing.
Current pattern: 4 days pivoting 7500, rewarding range traders at the expense of those looking for a breakout.
In any case, the longer the pattern goes on the greater the risk of a directional move (in the direction of the breakout) once it is broken.
Is the bottom in?
3 green up candles and signs of momentum on short-term time charts are encouraging signs but a solid move above 4200-20+ followed by breaks of the daily trendline and 4381 would confirm the shift in risk.
Signs of a bottom (higher lows: 1.1361/1.1324) that would need to take out 1.1622 to confirm the low in in.
This leaves room to trade within the broader trend where 1.1473 (also 50% of 1.1622 => 1.1324)) and 1.1508 (61.8%) would need to be solidly regained to give legs to run this higher.
Test
Forex trading calculations can seem complex at first, but they become straightforward once you understand the core building blocks. Like any skill, success comes from repetition and real-market experience rather than theory alone.
Using a forex calculator or demo trading account helps traders quickly understand how different values interact in live market conditions. Over time, these calculations should become automatic so traders can focus on execution and decision-making instead of math.
