EURUSD EURGBP GBPUSD
EURGBP: Up
Page 5
All Daily Tips
Markets always on the lookout for the path of least resistance. In this case it is selling JPY on its crosses where there ius less chance of sparking BoJ intervention.
In this case, there is a tug-of-war where AUDUSD is trading up while USDJPY is up as well. Note most of the move in the cross is the result of AUD moving up more while JPY is down less vs the USD.
Red AT lines dominating, indicating up momentum and an upside risk.
So, what is holding USDJPY back?
Currently trapped between 1.1400-50 (actual range 1.1402-52) with key levels outside of it at 1.1377-1.1482.
A case can be made for an upside risk looking at longer-term charts (but only if 1.1482 is firmly taken out) vs momentum tilted down (but contained while above 1.1400) on this chart.
Momentum turning up
Faces layers of resistance following a break of a 4043 double top:
Testing 65542 (high so far 65584), if firmly taken out next target 67226.
If not, then support at 63690 and the trendline need to hold along with 62439 below it to keep risk on the upside.
Pause above 1.40 suggests a defense of this level but to confirm a low is in, a solid move above 1.4058 followed by breaks of 1.4077 and the 4 hour trendline are needed.
On the other side, no more sell stops to run unless the low is taken out.
Understanding Cross-Currency Flows
Similar picture with US500 except more volatility in the NAS100, which has been leading.
Here, too, trying to build up momentum (rising red AT lines) but only managing to test 29K, above which is needed to give it a bid
Trying to build upward momentum (rising red AT lines) but to give it a bid, 7500 (so far just pivoted) would need to become support..
(AT 1 hour chart)
Trade the Episode, Not the Trend
GBPUSD uptrend out of steam and consolidating within 1.34-1.35, a sort of a no man’s land for trading with key levels and stops outside of it (1.3322/42 and 1.3557).
To restore a bid aimed at the high, 1.35+ would be needed.
Trying to build fresh momentum with a move back to the pivotal .7000 level, which has trading again for the 4th day in a row (the longer this pattern goes on, the greater the risk of a directional move once it is broken).
This follows a retracement from .7021 => .6965 and bounce back to .7000.
Struggling to regain momentum following the bounce off higher lows peaked at 1.1482.
The pause above 1.1400 following the high suggests current range is within 1.14-115. Assuming this is the case, the struggle to regain 1.1450 the past two days (high so far today 1.1449) has cooled the upside and sets the trading tone within the 1.14-1.15 range.
The 4000 level has trade in 5 of the past 6 days (only exception was one day above it), confirming this as the battle line that will ultimately dictate whether the low has been seen or not.
Otherwise, daily chart shows a 3-week consolidation between 3942and 4220 with the latter high set about 4 weeks ago,
Break of the 28676 low has seen a pause just above 28200, the level (along with 28K) that bulls do not want to see trade.
(AT daily chart)
The level bulls do not want to see broken following the break of 7500 is 7420 so some hope with the low pausing above it at 7431.
However, as the chart shows, back above 7500 would be needed to negate the riisk
Coming off 18-year high where 3 blue AT lines indicate a bearish pattern that would need to break 217.31 to break momentum and confirm a high is in for now..
Note, with USDJPY trading a tight range, most of the moves in this cross are coming from moves in GBPUSD.
One week ago it was highlighted here a directional shift in risk to the downside after a 12-day pivot around 1.42 was broken.
In this regard, the 1.3950 target remains intact but 1.40, more psychological than technical) remains an obstacle to exposing it.
Retreat from just below a one year high (.8152 vs., .8169 ) would need to break .8009 (use .8000 as well ) to negate current momentum and shift it the other way.
Otherwise, move down will likely be treated as a retracement.
.
Daily chart: Downtrend but consolidating while above the 3942 low.
Other charts: So far unable to shake a focus from 4000 after a bunce from a pause above 3861 (low at 3969) , the last obstacle to 3942.
Stalemate: 2 week range: 1.6127 – 162.84
Trades bid while above 162 but BoJ intervention threat restraining a stronger push up.
So far unable to sustain momentum off higher lows (red AT lines) after extending high to 1.1482.
For momentum to build, EURUSD would need to get through 1.1508 = 61.8% of 1.1622 => 1.1324
Failure to hold 1.35+ has seen a move below the 1.3461 breakout level
Catalyst: EURGBP bounce back above .8500 has been a weight on GBPUSD while EURUSD lags and trades a tight range. See upcoming article on using crosses to trade spot currencies.
IS BTCUSD bid or bid in an offered market?
Answer: Jury is out unless 65525 is firmly broken (came close) on the upside or 60/61K is broken on the downside
If you followed our USDCAD posts you will learn a good lesson on how directional signals can come from a break of a pattern trading around a key round number.
In this case it was a break of a 12-day pivoit around 1.,42.
Trying to correct but upside stays at risk while 7528 holds as support.
If not, then fallback is 7500, which keeps a bid as long as it holds.
Momentum trying to build to the downside (2 blue AT lines followed by a break of 29091, brief so far) and dependent on 29K (more psychological than technical) holding to [prevent exposing the key 28678 low.
Back above 29091, would cool but then 29592 needed to negate the risk
Consolidating between 83.45 and 86.58 on this 4 hour CFD chart
For the current rebound to build further momentum, 88.00+ would be needed (87.68 on this chart)