Struggling to regain momentum following the bounce off higher lows peaked at 1.1482.
The pause above 1.1400 following the high suggests current range is within 1.14-115. Assuming this is the case, the struggle to regain 1.1450 the past two days (high so far today 1.1449) has cooled the upside and sets the trading tone within the 1.14-1.15 range.
The 4000 level has trade in 5 of the past 6 days (only exception was one day above it), confirming this as the battle line that will ultimately dictate whether the low has been seen or not.
Otherwise, daily chart shows a 3-week consolidation between 3942and 4220 with the latter high set about 4 weeks ago,
Break of the 28676 low has seen a pause just above 28200, the level (along with 28K) that bulls do not want to see trade.
(AT daily chart)
The level bulls do not want to see broken following the break of 7500 is 7420 so some hope with the low pausing above it at 7431.
However, as the chart shows, back above 7500 would be needed to negate the riisk
Coming off 18-year high where 3 blue AT lines indicate a bearish pattern that would need to break 217.31 to break momentum and confirm a high is in for now..
Note, with USDJPY trading a tight range, most of the moves in this cross are coming from moves in GBPUSD.
One week ago it was highlighted here a directional shift in risk to the downside after a 12-day pivot around 1.42 was broken.
In this regard, the 1.3950 target remains intact but 1.40, more psychological than technical) remains an obstacle to exposing it.
Retreat from just below a one year high (.8152 vs., .8169 ) would need to break .8009 (use .8000 as well ) to negate current momentum and shift it the other way.
Otherwise, move down will likely be treated as a retracement.
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Daily chart: Downtrend but consolidating while above the 3942 low.
Other charts: So far unable to shake a focus from 4000 after a bunce from a pause above 3861 (low at 3969) , the last obstacle to 3942.
Stalemate: 2 week range: 1.6127 – 162.84
Trades bid while above 162 but BoJ intervention threat restraining a stronger push up.
So far unable to sustain momentum off higher lows (red AT lines) after extending high to 1.1482.
For momentum to build, EURUSD would need to get through 1.1508 = 61.8% of 1.1622 => 1.1324
