Bounce off the low more than filling the opening week gap but so far with limited follow through as it consolidates within its existing range (e.g. key supports 1.1361 and 1.1324)
Key resistance levels are clear on this chart, 1.1462 and 1.1473 (also a 50% retracement). To challenge these levels, 1.1450+ would be needed (note high today 1.,1446). Suggests upside is limited unless 1.1450+ trades.
No change to this view: For momentum to build to the upside, 61215 needs to hold followed by a break above 65525.
Otherwise, it stays stuck in a range within -60/61-64/65.
Currently pivoting 4100 as it trades within a 4022-4202 range.
While upside is capped below 4138, attempts build up momentum will struggle, making it dependent on 4054 holding to keep those hopes alive.
7 day pivot around 7500 likely to be broken = bullish
Now needs to firmly trade above 7552 to confirm, which would expose 7583 as the last obstacle to the record 7624 high
12-day pattern around 1.42 so far broken (bearish if 1.42 doesn’t trade today)
1.4149 range low over this 12-day period broken as well (stops run) but with limited follow through after a pause above 1.4134 support (low 1.4136) and 1.4124 below it. This is why I say AT levels matter.
USDJPY fell back below 162 after Finance Minister Katayama said pension funds should be encouraged to invest more in the domestic market.
So far key support at 161.25 has held (low 161.28) to contain the fallout but only back above 162.00 and 162.07 would negate the shift in risk.
Market stays in a sell on blips mode while trade is below 162.
It is said that the forex market (and its algos) live to run stops. This can be seen by this chart where stops were run above 1.1449 followed by a pause just below 1.1462 and a quick retreat. Key resistance (also a 50% retracement).is at 1.1473
Momentum otherwise is tilted up but with little to go for on the upside (i.e. no key stops to run) unless the high of the day (1.1461) is taken out.
If you are looking for momentum to build, 61215 needs to hold followed by a break above 65525.
Otherwise, it stays stuck in a range within 60/61K – 64/65K
